Bruins Offseason Prep: Budgeting
Exploring Evolving Hockey's contract projections
We are officially one month away from the NHL Draft at the Sphere in Las Vegas. That means that offseason planning is officially underway. Most teams have either just concluded a set of meetings or are having them this week. With that, I thought it would be a good idea to do some of my own “offseason” prep for the Boston Bruins.
Unfortunately, I am not privy to the draft, so my focus is solely encapsulated by free agency and potential trades. Around this point, I want to figure out which players I have to keep, ones I want to bring back but am not quite committed to, and ones I am fine letting go.
Throughout this, I will use the Evolving Hockey contract projections as reference. You can access every player’s contract projection, including extensions, with a pro membership. Sign up here.
Have to Keep
Jeremy Swayman (4 years, $6.25 million AAV)
The only free agent that I am putting in my “have to keep” bucket is Jeremy Swayman. The reasoning behind that is pretty clear-cut. Over the last two seasons, only Linus Ullmark and Connor Hellebuyck have a higher delta save percentage (actual minus expected) in the regular season.
A great fear of mine, and one that the contract projection is not taking into account, is that his recent playoff performance where he posted a .931 save percentage with 11.6 goals saved above expected is going to push up his price significantly. As I was recently discussing with a “capologist” on an Eastern Conference team, playoff performances, and the narratives they create, are still on of the great inefficiencies in the market. While I don’t foresee the AAV crawling up to $8 million, I could see both the term and AAV getting pushed up significantly from this projection.
Non-Committal
These players are the ones who I’d want to keep if I am assuming there are no major changes to the roster. If there is no major trade or big name free agent coming Boston’s way, then I think these guys have to be on the roster next season. As June plays out, I may begin to put pen to paper depending on my insight into what happens July 1. I will order these players from most important to least important.
Danton Heinen (3 years, $2.50 million)
After singing a PTO in late October, Danton Heinen worked his way up to becoming a staple in the Bruins lineup come spring. He finished with his highest point total (36) since her recorded 47 points in 77 games his rookie season. The defensive side of his game proved vital in aiding Pavel Zacha who struggled a bit in his first year back at center.
As any underpaid worker, he deserves a raise. On the open market, Heinen could potentially fetch an AAV above the $3 million mark, but Boston feels like home for the British Columbian. He is back with his college coach and friends here in Boston. I placed his first on this section of my list because I think he is the most versatile and offers the highest return on investment.
Jesper Boqvist (2 years, $1.70 million)
I don’t have much to say on Boqvist quite yet. Once the Bruins re-sign him, I’d love to do a bit of a deep dive into what makes him a suitable bottom-six forward. Don Sweeney stressed wanting to be a faster team moving forward. Why would you move on from Boqvist if you want to be faster?
This is a negotiation that I am fine with dragging out given his RFA status. He will likely file for arbitration, but I think the two sides can get a deal done before that. I’d just like to have the flexibility the first two weeks of July to evaluate my roster before committing.
Jake DeBrusk (5 years, $5.80 million)
A true down year for DeBrusk will likely keep his cap hit within reason. He only scored 19 goals in 80 games in 2023-24, a major step back from 27 in 64 the season prior. DeBrusk is a fine middle-six winger, but it becomes incredibly difficult to commit to signing him if there is a chance to bring in a true top-six winger like Guentzel. If the Bruins strike out on a big move in the top six, then I think it’s time to go ahead and sign DeBrusk. But I would rather not move forward without testing the waters a bit.
Letting Go
The remaining UFA’s I am letting go and not looking back. Those players are: Patrick Maroon, James van Riemsdyk, Derek Forbort, Matt Grzelcyk, and Kevin Shattenkirk. Those players are all above the age of 30 and don’t quite fit into at least my vision of the team anymore. Perhaps I will regret that if the Bruins bring back Maroon or Shattenkirk as veteran leaders, but I ultimately don’t want that to be a part of my plan at the moment.
With that, my pro-forma budget heading into the summer looks like this.
Projected Cap Hit: $82.24 million
Projected Cap Space: $5.46 million
That cap space would open up the opportunity to potentially snag a left-handed defenseman. My preferred pick would be Chris Tanev, but Zadarov may make sense for the Bruins as well.
I don’t know if I believe that this will be a calm offseason for the Bruins, but it’s important to ground your understanding of the roster and how it may shake out in the status quo first. Otherwise, you spending your time aimlessly dreaming about fairytales.