I closed my laptop Thursday evening following a Bruins 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche. I had a Dunkin cold brew at 3 o’clock in the afternoon, which was going to give me the energy to get through the games out west. I went to go brush my teeth and bothered to check my email. Just minutes before, United Airlines cancelled my flight back to the east coast from Seattle, derailing my weekend plans in Seattle. I scrambled to cancel my hotel stay and outbound flight, and signed up for Saturday’s Bruins game.
On Saturday evening, flurries fell from the sky on Causeway. There is always something that feels special about a Bruins-Canadiens game, but when snow is falling and temperatures are well below freezing, it feels even more special. On a night that honored the 1988 Bruins as a part of the “New Blood, New Beginnings” eras night, the two teams played homage to the 1980’s by combining for nine goals through the first 40 minutes. However, the game broke open in the third when the Bruins tallied four more goals while not conceding any to win 9-4. It was the Bruins first nine-goal game since January of 2012.
The Bruins earned themselves a day off to watch football as they sat 7 points ahead in the Eastern Conference after 45 games played.
Once again, the Bruins appear as a strange team from an analytics perspective. They rank 14th in the NHL at 5v5 expected goal share (51.5%) and 17th in shot attempt share (50.1%), and yet they are 3rd in 5v5 goal share at 58.2%. Looking at their 5v5 goal differential components on Evolving-Hockey.com, the vast majority of their goal differential appears to be coming from their goaltending.
You can read more about this on their glossary page, but the goaltending component (SV +/- /60) is expected goals against per 60 minus goals against per 60. While last year’s team was far deeper in their last dance with Patrice Bergeron, the reliance on goaltending draws doubts from those in the analytics community. An injury or cold streak from their netminders could expose a rather average looking team in front of them. That’s why a game like Saturday night’s is so important. Sticking to the process and overcoming lackluster goaltending and defensive play by scoring four goals in the third period can give the skaters the confidence that they can win games in different ways.
The area of 5v5 play that they do excel at is shot quality, particularly on the offensive side of the puck. In his availability Saturday night, Jim Montgomery praised his team multiple times for being willing to hang on to pucks longer. He referenced a metaphor that they are “upgrading” their scoring opportunities. That’s coach talk for sacrificing shot rate for shot quality.
The enforcement of shot quality as a team value from the coaching staff, likely with some help from the analytics department upstairs, eventually translates to the numbers. So far this season, the Bruins have the 9th lowest percentage of shot attempts blocked (27.8%), and 6th highest expected unblocked shooting percentage (6.6%). Being in the top third of the league in each metric leads them to the 4th highest expected all shot attempts shooting percentage (xGF/CF) at 4.7%. So while the Bruins rank 18th in the rate of shot attempts they take at 5v5, they move up to 10th in expected goals per 60 minutes.
Of course, 5v5 isn’t the only state of play. Special teams are incredibly important too. Given the increased scoring rates, they are disproportionately important minutes. There are two ways to impact special teams success; by creating positive penalty differentials and by having high goal differentials in each game state.
The Bruins have been incredibly poor at creating a positive penalty differential. They have taken the third most minor penalties in the league at 187 while only drawing 163. They have also taken two more major penalties than they’ve drawn, giving them the third worst penalty differential at -26.
While the Bruins aren’t doing themselves any favors with their lack of discipline, they are quite effective while playing on the powerplay and shorthanded. The Bruins have the 3rd highest goal differential per 60 on the powerplay and the 11th highest goal differential per 60 while shorthanded.
While this team isn’t as cutthroat as the record-breaking one last year, this is a team with no apparent weaknesses outside of their poor penalty differential and their disappointing 3v3 overtimes. The latter doesn’t matter come playoff time.
Before the season started, I mention that I thought the optimistic view of the Bruins relied on the success of Morgan Geekie, Trent Frederic, Danton Heinen, and a young player shining. So far, we’ve seen that.
Let’s start with Trent Frederic. He was the player I had the most concerns about. I tried to be careful not to call Frederic’s breakout 2022-23 season “luck,” but I certainly had my doubts that he could keep up with that performance moving forward. His personal shooting percentage last season was 14.2%, something that was suspect for a player who came into the season with 23 points in 119 games. He was taking very high-quality shots, particularly from rebounds, and was finishing high-quality chances at a high rate.
This season, we’ve seen that continue. His 9.5% expected unblocked shooting percentage at 5v5 is by far the best on the Bruins and is the 39th of the 479 skaters who’ve played 400 minutes this season. Finishing unblocked shots at 12.6% is not unreasonable, and with 87 unblocked shots, he is tied for 33rd in the league with 11 5v5 goals this season.
Additionally, a statistic that I look at is a two-thirds weight of expected standings points above replacement and a one-third weight of standings points above replacement. I call it Meta SPAR. It’s a rough optimization of the two all-in-one models available on Evolving-Hockey.com. Leading the Bruins is David Pastrnak, followed by Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand. Following the lettered players is Trent Frederic.
So far this season, he has blown my low expectations out of the water while also being flexible for Jim Montgomery in the bottom six. He’d probably be my vote for 7th Player Award.
For Morgan Geekie, he has had a good season offensively. He now has 8 goals and 14 assists, leaving him 6 points shy of his career-high in points and a pair of goals shy of his first 10-goal season. Much of this feels, in part, due to the positions he’s been awarded from the coaching staff. He has seen his fair share of 5v5 minutes with David Pastrnak, who is his most-common forward teammate. He has also received time on the powerplay in the bumper position as the Bruins look for a permanent residency there.
While Geekie has been effective in the roles he’s been put in, he isn’t driving play like one might hope. The defensive deficiencies that have existed in his game seem to be persisting this season. However, insulated by a good system and strong goaltending, Geekie is operating in an optimal environment.
As it pertains to my favorite player, Danton Heinen, I really don’t know what to say. Based on the metrics I tend to value (i.e., GAR, xGAR, RAPM), he has been rather poor. It’s one of my great confusions as I feel he’s been great by the eye test, the fan feedback I see is also positive, and he’s typically an analytics sweetheart.
The greatest thing holding him back has been his defensive results. This may explain the disconnect between the eye test and the underlying numbers. It’s easy to spot that Heinen has been effective, relative to other bottom-six wingers, offensively. Jim Montgomery mentioned that prior to Saturday night’s game, Heinen ranked 5th on the team in 5v5 scoring chances. On Evolving-Hockey.com, he ranks 3rd in expected goals with 8.3.
The area of his weakness defensively has been quality against. The isolated rate at which he surrenders shots against is roughly average, but the expected save percentage of those shots has been quite poor. To be optimistic, as a winger, he’s less responsible for shot quality than his centerman and backs. Plus, he has been the third best Bruins forward in controlled exit index, which is controlled exit percentage multiplied by controlled exit rate.
A 463 minute sample is quite small. And given a history of Heinen being a strong defensive player, I reckon the underlying metrics get better as we head into the back half of the season. 17 points in 37 games from a player who signed off of a professional tryout offer is incredible.
And then you have the young player who shines. That would be Matthew Poitras. It’s been a rollercoaster season for him. He started off incredibly hot, then cooled off, got sent to World Juniors to play on a poorly run Team Canada, and now he is back.
The Bruins have sheltered him, sometimes to the dismay of Bruins fans. His lack of time on ice in the third period is a reflection of the state of his game management at this point along with trying to manage his confidence. His size is still a concern, but his ability to play when he has space has been the story. He is second on the Bruins in controlled entry index while leading them in controlled exit index. His Meta SPAR is also 1.0, which is worth far more than his current cap hit.
The Bruins needed everything to go their way in the aftermath of the last dance. So far it has. It’s becoming harder and harder to remember the feeling that this team was going to regress heading into this season. We’ll see if that ever happens.