Entering the ninth game of the season Monday night, Matthew Poitras has three goals and two assists, all of which have come at even strength. This stat line also ties David Pastrnak for the team lead in even strength points. Of course, through the preseason and continuing over this last week, he has gotten a hint of luck.
Out of 5,274 skater seasons consisting of at least 1,000 minutes since 2007-08, only 19 finished the year with a shooting percentage equal to or greater than where Poitras sits currently. As fun as it is, this level of finishing and production is unlikely to be sustained over the course of the rest of the season. But the small stints of production are not going to determine whether or not Poitras stays in the NHL, especially with a front office as smart as the Boston Bruins.
After Monday night, the Bruins will have the option to send Poitras back to junior for the remainder of the season (including playoffs), extending his entry-level contract by one year. The entry-level slide was popular in the pre-covid world but has since lost its popularity. There are a few reasons for this.
Let’s take Matty Beniers of the Seattle Kraken as an example. Drafted second overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, he played 10 games with the Kraken in 2021-22 after finishing his season with the Michigan Wolverines. Last season was his rookie season despite burning a year on his ELC, and he won the Calder Trophy as the top rookie in the league with 57 points in 80 games. Now, he is entering his contract year, turning 21 years old on November 5.
By getting to his second contract earlier, the Kraken will give themselves a better opportunity to sign him to a more affordable second contract, potentially through the entire prime of his career. They reduce the total number of games he can have under his belt from 246 to 174, giving themselves more leverage. Additionally, they will sign him in a lower cap environment. If he were to sign at 10% of the cap, based on some early cap projections, the cap hit on his next contract would be $8.75 million versus $9.20 million if he signed a year later. Plus, it gives the Kraken more flexibility on a bridge deal if the two parties cannot come to an agreement on a long-term contract.
There’s also the factor of discount rates. Whether or not you believe there is merit in entry-level contracts or believe it is just wage suppression (I reckon the Blackhawks would pay Bedard $10 million annually instead of $950k), there is a value for the teams which is created by the gap between what the player brings them on the ice and what their cap hit is. If Poitras is a true third line center right now, based on Dom Luszczyszyn’s work, he should be getting paid somewhere between $2.2 and 3.3 million. Based on Poitras’ current cap hit, that’s between $1.3 and $2.4 million. The Bruins could kick that down the road, likely seeing the value increase as the cap goes up and players get paid more, but the value will serve the Bruins more now as they have $4.8 million in dead cap this year and $1.3 million next year.
While it may have been a tool in the tool box, and may have made the decision to give Poitras a spot out of camp easier, the potential advantages of the entry-level slide don’t quite add up for the Bruins. And while the Bruins may not have confirmed it (in typical Bruins fashion), he made the team for the whole season a while ago.
While the production may not stay as high throughout the season, or at least the goal scoring, there is a lot to be excited about with Poitras game outside of points. While he has been rather sheltered, playing mostly against opponent’s third lines and pairs with the lowest percentage of defensive zone shift starts, his on-ice results have been quite good. With Poitras on the ice at 5-on-5, the Bruins have had a 57.6% share of expected goals and 55.2% share of shot attempts. This has been driven largely by shot volume, as the Bruins have taken 74.4 shot attempts per hour with him on the ice (3rd on the Bruins).
One of the things that is driving his shot rate is his compete level. Unfortunately, I am a tad behind on my tracking, but Poitras is one of the top players in loose puck recoveries following Bruins shots, keeping shifts alive. Take this 20 second stint in Anaheim.
He follows up a dangerous initial shot attempt by winning a puck battle on the boards and driving to the middle to take another shot. Quite frankly, any Bruins fan right now probably has a shift in mind where Poitras recovered pucks and extended shifts. It is what has earned him the spot next to Pastrnak on the momentum line following penalty kills.
Poitras also has a distinct comfort with the puck. He is willing to have the puck on his stick longer than most NHLers, let alone a teenager. And complementing that, he has a love for one-on-one battles. These two complement each other as he can draw 1-on-2’s which opens up a teammate. Take his secondary assist on Thursday night as an example.
As soon as a Duck tries to come to the rescue, Poitras is able to start the rotation that leads to the goal.
It has become clear to me that Poitras playmaking abilities stem largely from his ability to control the pace of the game, allowing his teammates to find space to create offense. He’s more of a distributor, like the Bruins saw with David Krejci. The shots he takes are very high quality, but he spends more time on the perimeter keeping plays alive and moving as opposed to grinding his way inside. The Bruins have patience for a player like this now where they otherwise might not have a few years ago.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows with Poitras. I still have concerns with his defensive abilities as well as his conditioning. He is giving up far too many shots and chances against given his usage and he has a tendency to be outright exhausted after 45 seconds on the ice. He’s a project though. And he’s a project that is better suited to be in the lineup than anyone the Bruins have to fill the spot. So, his development will continue in Boston.